We have shifted our forecast to no change in the OCR in September and October. Nearly all economists are now picking a pause next week, and interest rate markets are pricing only a one in four chance of a hike. But where our view differs – certainly from market pricing at least – is that we expect the September Monetary Policy Statement to continue to push the message that the OCR will need to move higher as the economy recovers.
Economic Comment
Westpac Weekly Commentary - Tipped over the edge
We have shifted our forecast to no change in the OCR in September and October. Nearly all economists are now picking a pause next week, and interest rate markets are pricing only a one in four chance of a hike. But where our view differs – certainly from market pricing at least – is that we expect the September Monetary Policy Statement to continue to push the message that the OCR will need to move higher as the economy recovers.
Dollar gallops higher in night trade
The New Zealand dollar continued to climb overnight, ending the week on a stronger note than the start. By 8am today the NZ dollar was buying 71.44c from US71.28c at 5pm yesterday, after reaching a high of nearly US71.80c overnight.
Westpac Weekly Commentary - Diminished expectations
Local data was thin on the ground again last week, leaving markets to attempt to draw some meaning from the RBNZ’s quarterly survey of expectations.
bnz weekly overview from tony alexander - chief economist, bnz
The World Remains A Challenging Place - Fresh economic data releases have been thin on the ground in New Zealand this week, but offshore it has been a different story., but offshore it has been a different story. In Europe we have seen a lift in German business confidence to a three year high coming hard on the heels of an earlier report showing 2.2% growth in the German economy during the June quarter.
Westpac Weekly Commentary - Minding Inflation
It’s a longer than usual gap between Monetary Policy Statements. With few significant data releases before the September review, the market took what it could from the RBNZ Governor’s speech last week.
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